Stats aren't always stats

By Anthony Kastrinakis

He has added up the times in games when Van Persie and Ronaldo have scored their first goal, and then divided by the number of games played. This then is used to give the time of their average first goal in a game. Apparently this predicts when the players will score. It’s utter nonsense of the highest order and the predictive power of this method is equal to blind guessing.

The most annoying part is the claim that:

Stats show when sharpshooting stars are most likely to score (empahsis mine)

The “stats” show nothing, this is the work of a moron who doesn’t understand statistics or football. This joker has added up a bunch of numbers to produce something he believes is meaningful when has no idea how to do so.

Consider his theory for a moment. Average time of first goal the player has scored in a game will predict when that player will score.

Using this amazing predictive system I have been able to predict the following:

Man Utd are likely to score 7 goals in total as that is how many players in the line-up had an average goal time to calculate.

Rafael should score after 46 minutes, beating two of the most prolific goalscorers in world football to the punch.

Alex Ferguson will start on his second strip of chewing gum after 6 minutes

Jose Mourinho will refuse to answer the 13th question posed to him in the post match press conference

There is a place in football for meaningful intelligent statistical analysis. It worries me that a journalist who writes for national newspapers thinks this is that, and that we are stupid enough to buy it

Lawro's predictions

Here's Lawro

We’ll start with the standard never more than 3 goals in a game stuff

1-1

2-0

2-1

2-0

1-1

1-2

1-2

1-0

2-0

2-0

Tottenham v Newcastle

I wouldn't be surprised if a few of their [Newcastle] injured players come back quicker now their places are under threat.

I take this to mean that these players are currently faking their injuries? Either that or they have the ability to manipulate time and space in such a way as to speed up recovery from injury whenever they so desire.

Joking aside it is a very strong allegation he is making against these unnamed players as to their professionalism. As if they didn’t want any part in coming back until some better players joined. I can only guess he is talking about Ben Arfa and Danny Simpson as they are the only first teamers currently injured. Simpson has a broken toe, Ben Arfa has been advised by the club doctor not to play because he could tear his hamstring. So without X-Men like powers what can they do?

Swansea v QPR. Prediction 1-2.

According to Lawro QPR should be 7^th in the table with 41 points. They are actually 20^th with 17 points. That’s some mighty fine predicting.

I don’t think Lawro even looks at the web page that publishes his predictions, if he did he would surely not keep this up. You would think that it you “write” a column for the BBC that you would at least give it a cursory glance to make sure that what you said is actually reflected in the article. Lawro obviously too busy bemoaning his employment situation, nay his very existence, to trifle with such things.

Sunderland v Arsenal

I can envisage a game where Arsenal have lots of possession

More revolutionary analysis from Lawro and his crystal ball. He’s right of course, but he might as well be saying that he predicts they will play with a round ball. It’s actually anti-analysis where he has just reached into the back of his mind for some vague description of what he thinks Arsenal are like.

Lawros’ brain: Well Arsenal always have loads of possession and try and pass it into the back of the net. Oh why do I even bother anymore, it’s hopeless. Someone get me out of here for the love of God.

Here’s how easy it is to do a bit of actual analysis. It took me 10 minutes to work out that Arsenal have had more possession in 14 out of their last 18 EPL games. The games they didn’t do that in were against Chelsea, Swansea, Man City and Wigan! It’s 11 of last 20 for Sunderland, which is a little higher than I thought but makes sense given their mid table position. Against top teams they are poor in possession. Man City 40%, Liverpool 39%, Spurs 44%, Everton 43%, Man Utd 41%. Also just for lols they only had 35% against Wigan and they still won 3-2!

So the message here is all signs point to more possession for Arsenal, but I wouldn’t expect the gap to be too wide. And also Wigan keep the ball very well but don’t do anything with it!

Aston Villa v West Ham

Let’s take a few titbits from this prediction:

Andy Carroll fit and scoring again.

how easy it is to score against Villa.

Set-pieces are their biggest issue, which is a particular problem when you play the Hammers because they thrive on set-pieces and organisation

Richard Dunne's absence through injury is a particular blow for Villa

All good points here. Looks like Villa are going to struggle

Prediction: 1-0

Oh Lawro.

Also worth mentioning, Liverpool v West Brom get’s 9 paragraphs, and a side bar about Stevie G. This is more than for any other game this weekend. Not in a biased way of course.

Classic india

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/How-many-died-in-CWG-projects-Govt-doesnt-know/articleshow/6795726.cms
 

Top, Top pundit

Jamie Redknapp nonsense:

Glenn Murray scored two more, so that’s 23 league goals for the season, but it was the No 9 alongside him — Kevin Phillips — who might just give
Crystal Palace that extra edge in the Championship run-in.

My old England team-mate has scored everywhere he’s been. An inspired loan signing in the window

So a 39 year-old man with 2 goals in 18 games will give his team the edge? Not the player with 25 goals in 28 games this season?

Stick to the boring platitudes Jamie.

Mike Celizic - HatGuy

Once upon a time I used to read a wonderful blog called firejoemorgan. That blog is the reason I write what you are reading now. They haven't updated that site for years but this glorious day they have returned on Deadspin
Firstly I implore you to click the link and also to read their original blog which should be on your screen somewhere to the right of this post. Secondly a word about a sports journalist that they used to write about.

Mike Celizic, known as HatGuy wrote some absolute rubbish about baseball for a long time, and FJM rightly destroyed him for it. He was recently diagnosed with T-cell lymphoma and sadly today he died. His last blog post was beautifully written and felt to me like a farewell from a warm old friend. A man whose ideas on baseball I couldn't have agreed less with, but a witty and intelligent writer who will leave the world a less interesting and fun place.
Perspective is a wonderful thing. Mike Celizic wrote the kind of stuff I regularly abuse people for on this blog, but as a man he was deserving of nothing but praise. So remember that some crappy sports journalism does not mean I hate the person, just I think what they wrote was garbage.

So raise a hot fudge sundae and say farewell to HatGuy, proof that a person and their work are not the same. Except for Piers Morgan, the twat.

Alan Shearer is the worst pundit floating in a sea of crap

Last night on MOTD Alan Shearer said the following about Hatem Ben Arfa: "no one knows much about him"

This is the Hatem Ben Arfa who has played several times and scored twice for France and won about 5 Ligue One titles so far in his career.
Add the fact that he has just signed for the club Shearer supports and was manager of only 2 years ago and you get a perfect example of why Alan Shearer is the worst pundit in the history of MOTD. He has managed the incredible feat of talking for what I suppose must add up to days of BBC broadcast time and not once say anything interesting or insightful.

That is all.

Evra v Thuram

Intelligent footballers at war with each other?

While the French FA and it's players continue to destroy each other, let's remember this classic line from Manchester United's most erudite player. In response to Lillian Thuram's negative comments we get this beauty

Walking round with books on slavery in glasses and a hat does not turn you into Malcolm X

I'm willing to bet that 90% of the British media's target audience have no idea who Malcolm X was, so it was kind of lost in the Daily Mail of all places. The Mail do know that Malcolm X was a Muslim right? Strange that they mention one without use of the word terrorist or extremist.