Lawro v Piers Morgan

Mark Lawrenson's latest predictions are against Piers Morgan. Twat.

Not much from Morgan other than some typically bitter pot shots at Ashley Cole, Samir Nasri and Ant & Dec.

Onto a couple of Lawro pearls:

Chelsea v West Brom

226 words before he mentions anything of relevance to this game or anything relating to a possible prediction of the result. The worst of those words include:

The whole situation at Stamford Bridge has turned into a soap opera

I’m fed up of people in sports media writing shit like this. It’s all been created as a figment of the media’s imagination, and when they constantly print lies about what is happening inside the club hiding behind unnamed sources it should not count as a soap opera.

Southampton v QPR

They are definitely due a victory (…)although I know that does sound daft for a team that has only won two out of 27 league games so far this season.

According to Lawro’s league table QPR are in 7^th with 13 wins. Sounds daft to me.

Lawro's predictions

Here's Lawro

We’ll start with the standard never more than 3 goals in a game stuff

1-1

2-0

2-1

2-0

1-1

1-2

1-2

1-0

2-0

2-0

Tottenham v Newcastle

I wouldn't be surprised if a few of their [Newcastle] injured players come back quicker now their places are under threat.

I take this to mean that these players are currently faking their injuries? Either that or they have the ability to manipulate time and space in such a way as to speed up recovery from injury whenever they so desire.

Joking aside it is a very strong allegation he is making against these unnamed players as to their professionalism. As if they didn’t want any part in coming back until some better players joined. I can only guess he is talking about Ben Arfa and Danny Simpson as they are the only first teamers currently injured. Simpson has a broken toe, Ben Arfa has been advised by the club doctor not to play because he could tear his hamstring. So without X-Men like powers what can they do?

Swansea v QPR. Prediction 1-2.

According to Lawro QPR should be 7^th in the table with 41 points. They are actually 20^th with 17 points. That’s some mighty fine predicting.

I don’t think Lawro even looks at the web page that publishes his predictions, if he did he would surely not keep this up. You would think that it you “write” a column for the BBC that you would at least give it a cursory glance to make sure that what you said is actually reflected in the article. Lawro obviously too busy bemoaning his employment situation, nay his very existence, to trifle with such things.

Sunderland v Arsenal

I can envisage a game where Arsenal have lots of possession

More revolutionary analysis from Lawro and his crystal ball. He’s right of course, but he might as well be saying that he predicts they will play with a round ball. It’s actually anti-analysis where he has just reached into the back of his mind for some vague description of what he thinks Arsenal are like.

Lawros’ brain: Well Arsenal always have loads of possession and try and pass it into the back of the net. Oh why do I even bother anymore, it’s hopeless. Someone get me out of here for the love of God.

Here’s how easy it is to do a bit of actual analysis. It took me 10 minutes to work out that Arsenal have had more possession in 14 out of their last 18 EPL games. The games they didn’t do that in were against Chelsea, Swansea, Man City and Wigan! It’s 11 of last 20 for Sunderland, which is a little higher than I thought but makes sense given their mid table position. Against top teams they are poor in possession. Man City 40%, Liverpool 39%, Spurs 44%, Everton 43%, Man Utd 41%. Also just for lols they only had 35% against Wigan and they still won 3-2!

So the message here is all signs point to more possession for Arsenal, but I wouldn’t expect the gap to be too wide. And also Wigan keep the ball very well but don’t do anything with it!

Aston Villa v West Ham

Let’s take a few titbits from this prediction:

Andy Carroll fit and scoring again.

how easy it is to score against Villa.

Set-pieces are their biggest issue, which is a particular problem when you play the Hammers because they thrive on set-pieces and organisation

Richard Dunne's absence through injury is a particular blow for Villa

All good points here. Looks like Villa are going to struggle

Prediction: 1-0

Oh Lawro.

Also worth mentioning, Liverpool v West Brom get’s 9 paragraphs, and a side bar about Stevie G. This is more than for any other game this weekend. Not in a biased way of course.

Lawro's predictions

I suppose Mark Lawrenson's prediction column for the BBC should really be our JoeChat. However this is the first time I've blogged on it.

First up a couple of quick Lawro tips.
1. When he doesn't know much about a team he makes a generic statement on them. This week we have:

good side
as good a football team as most
tough act at home
they are not a bad team
great footballing team

2. He never predicts a team to score more than 2 goals. This week:

2-0
2-1
1-1
2-1
0-2
1-1
1-1
0-2
2-0

Anyway let's move on to his first effort this week.

Swansea v Fulham (1245 GMT)
Swansea are as good a football team as most in the Championship. They are in form and won't change the way they play.
Fulham are a good side and quite strong away from home, but I'm going for a home win.

You might think with him being a regular MOTD pundit that he would know quite a bit about Fulham. While his assertion that they are a 'good side' is true if vague, the strong away from home comment isn't entirely accurate. It is in fact completely and wildly inaccurate. Fulham's Premier League away record is better than only Stoke's and WBA's and they have not won any games away from home in the league this season.

That would be a good reason to predict a win for in form Swansea. Except Lawro thinks they are strong away from home but still says they will lose 2-0!
Take that logic!

West Ham v Middlesbrough (1500 GMT)
The Hammers are much improved and Boro don't know where their next win is coming from, so I'm going for a draw!

The use of the exclamation mark suggests that even he realises how stupid his prediction is, and yet he makes it anyway. To write this sentence and expect to be taken seriously as a football pundit you need to be a special kind of person. NOT in a good way.

Portsmouth v Man City (1500 GMT)
Following Harry Redknapp was a very difficult job for Tony Adams at Fratton Park and having to sell their best players - but they were unlucky against Liverpool last weekend.
Man City don't have much of a physical presence up front and have to play on the counter-attack, so Pompey have a chance here.

All kinds of (sic) in the first bit. Unlucky or rubbish? Distin and James had a horror show and in fact Distin has been shocking ever since Adams got the job.
Also surely most teams play on the counter-attack away from home anyway? I would say that having incredibly fast skillful front players against Campbell and Distin is a plus not a minus. What he really should mention is City's horrible away form and if the real City will show up or not.

The message is clear Lawro: stick to what you are good at (making fatuous, unfunny remarks to distract everyone from the fact you haven't got a clue how to put together an interesting or insightful analysis of the game).