Stats aren't always stats

By Anthony Kastrinakis

He has added up the times in games when Van Persie and Ronaldo have scored their first goal, and then divided by the number of games played. This then is used to give the time of their average first goal in a game. Apparently this predicts when the players will score. It’s utter nonsense of the highest order and the predictive power of this method is equal to blind guessing.

The most annoying part is the claim that:

Stats show when sharpshooting stars are most likely to score (empahsis mine)

The “stats” show nothing, this is the work of a moron who doesn’t understand statistics or football. This joker has added up a bunch of numbers to produce something he believes is meaningful when has no idea how to do so.

Consider his theory for a moment. Average time of first goal the player has scored in a game will predict when that player will score.

Using this amazing predictive system I have been able to predict the following:

Man Utd are likely to score 7 goals in total as that is how many players in the line-up had an average goal time to calculate.

Rafael should score after 46 minutes, beating two of the most prolific goalscorers in world football to the punch.

Alex Ferguson will start on his second strip of chewing gum after 6 minutes

Jose Mourinho will refuse to answer the 13th question posed to him in the post match press conference

There is a place in football for meaningful intelligent statistical analysis. It worries me that a journalist who writes for national newspapers thinks this is that, and that we are stupid enough to buy it

The Sun, Harry Redknapp, and an article about all the wrong issues

Mediawatch has already covered some of this story, but the sheer patronising lack of respect for its readers bares mentioning here.

It has all the hallmarks of the very worst, cretinous journalism that this awful publication specialises in:

1. Claimed as a " WORLD EXCLUSIVE" despite it being published as a story 8 days ago in another paper
2. Each sentence is formatted as a paragraph, making the whole article like a visual assault. In fact I feel like I have mild snow-blindness, as the palsied universe lies before us a leper.
3. Zero quotes attributed to any players, and at least two attributed to unnamed sources.
4. Unnamed sources blatantly being made up to represent the views of what the author of the piece thinks they would say so as to back up his article

I quite liked these two statements:

It was an audacious plot planned with military precision

Skipper Robbie Keane - the mastermind behind the plan - had been on reconnaissance many times to Ireland's capital city

Has Robbie Keane ever masterminded anything? I doubt he could mastermind walking the dog frankly. Also, I can't help thinking that audacious isn't really the right word in this case. I know it's easy to revert to Irish stereotypes here but who could seriously consider that they would get away with this? I would perhaps replace "audacious" with "really fucking stupid".
In a slight on the modern armed forces, military precision seems to consist of collecting money, booking flights and a staying in a hotel. Never since the days of Monty and the desert rats has such an operation been put into place.
Robbie Keane was fucking BORN in Dublin. I wonder when he got the reconnaissance in? Perhaps throughout his whole fucking life because that's where he lived?

I really think that this whole debacle is worthy of a serious article about how the players have seriously undermined the authority of their manager by doing this 3 days before a Premier League game and then losing that match at home to Wolves. Of course that would require some kind of thought and intellect on the part of (let me just check back to see who wrote this bollocks) Shawn Custis.

More interestingly they may have to criticise Sun columnist, and all round highley affable and quotable Deputy Dawg himself. A massive no no for the manager who gets away with more crap than any other. This is thanks, I can only surmise, to the fact he is nice to the journos and give them good copy more often than not.

How the media works

There are some basic tenants on which the media are formed, especially with relevance to the tabloid press.
Their favourite is claiming every story as an EXCLUSIVE!!! Another technique which they employ often is to make up a story (generally claiming that the public are outraged about it) and then run with the story as gospel truth in the following days and weeks, usually inventing reactions to the story as well for as long as they think it will sell papers.

I present to you a particularly appalling and un-subtle (even for them) effort from The Sun.
Part 1
Part 2

The first story "We'll sue Man Utd" features zero quotes from any of the clubs involved. In fact on the day of the story being published all 3 of the clubs mentioned categorically denied any intention on their part to sue Man Utd no matter what team they play against Hull. So I think it would be fair to say that this story was a complete fabrication, or to put in simple language for the Sun journos: YOU FUCKING MADE IT UP

You would think at this point that The Sun would just forget about it and move on to a crazy transfer rumour of some sort. Unfortunately they decided to just carry on anyway with "Hull of a U-turn Fergie"

1. Fergie was never quoted or mentioned as wanting to field a weakened team. In fact his only comments have been that Rio Ferdinand would play to prove his fitness. Never has he mentioned anything about any other players being involved, or not as the case may be.
2. How did it take 2 journalists to write a story containing 248 words?
3. Awful, awful punnage in the headline.

SunSport revealed yesterday relegation-haunted Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Sunderland are furious at the prospect of United playing a shadow side.

SunSport made up yesterday a load of lies about 3 football clubs suing Man Utd but now they have issued clear denials we are going to pretend we said they were furious instead.

But after a day of talks between Premier League chiefs and the clubs, United have promised they will change their plans for the weekend.

Now we have realised that we are going to look stupid when Fergie plays a reasonably strong team we have decided to make up some more bullshit without any sources quoted whatsoever to cover our own backs.

Boss Alex Ferguson kicked off the compromise by saying Rio Ferdinand must prove his fitness at Hull ahead of the Champions League final three days later.

Can we find some quotes to back this up? Can we fuck, we'll just have to paraphrase something Fergie said earlier in the week and make it sound like he is backing us up.

That is a major shift from Fergie's original plan - which angered the trio of North-East clubs - to play only Fletcher from his normal starting XI.

Quick we haven't lied for the last 2 sentences, throw another one in to confuse them.


Congratulations to The Sun for producing some of the worst journalism I have ever read. And in this country that is saying something.